2019 Atlantic hurricane season (Jarrell)
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season was a slightly below-average active Atlantic hurricane season in terms of named storms, producing 11 tropical cyclones, 11 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The season officially began on June 1, 2019, and ended on November 30, 2019. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year. The season kicked off with a very slow start, becoming the latest-starting hurricane season since 2004; no tropical depressions formed until August 13, and the first storm, Ace, was named the following day. Ace also became the first major hurricane of the season on August 17. Hurricane Glenn was the most intense storm of the season, attaining peak winds of 150 mph (240 km/h) while traversing the Atlantic ocean. The costliest and deadliest storm of the season was the late-forming Hurricane Janie. Striking Hispaniola as a minimal hurricane, the storm was forecast to dissipate in the open Atlantic. However, the influence of a deep-layer ridge amid a favorable environment caused the storm to execute a loop and move west, eventually striking North Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane, the first since Hurricane Fran in 1996. Another notable storm was Hurricane Fern, which attained Category 4 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall as a weakening Category 3 hurricane south of Matamoros, Tampuilas. Collectively, the tropical cyclones of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season caused at least $10.1 billion in damage and 317 deaths. Seasonal forecasts Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had recently formed in November 2017. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units. 'Pre-season outlooks' After an extremely active and record-breaking season, the first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 11, 2018, which predicted a slightly below-average season in 2019, with a total of 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, due to the anticipated presence of El Niño conditions during the season. On December 30, the JMC released its first official forecast of the year, expecting a slightly lower number than that of 2018, with 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. The JMC noted the possibility of an El Nino developing, but stated that such conditions had been in the forecasts for the two previous seasons, both of which yielded high amounts of costly storms. On April 4, 2019, CSU released its forecast, predicting a near-average season of 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. On April 5, TSR released an updated forecast that reiterated its earlier predictions. North Carolina State University released their forecast on April 16, predicting slightly-above average activity with 13–16 named storms, 5–7 hurricanes and 2–3 major hurricanes. On May 6, The Weather Company predicted a slightly-above average season, with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. On May 30, TSR released an updated forecast which increased the number of forecast hurricanes from 5 to 6. 'Mid-season outlooks' On June 4, CSU updated their forecast to include 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. On June 11, University of Arizona (UA) predicted above-average activities: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and accumulated cyclone energy index of 150 units. On July 4, the TSR released their first mid-season outlook, still retaining their numbers from the previous forecast. On July 9, CSU released their second mid-season outlook with the same remaining numbers from their previous forecast. Seasonal summary ImageSize = width:710 height:230 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/08/2019 till:30/11/2019 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/08/2019 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_≤_39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_≥_157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:13/08/2019 till:19/08/2019 color:C3 text:"Ace (C3)" from:21/08/2019 till:24/08/2019 color:TS text:"Brittany (TS)" from:28/08/2019 till:31/08/2019 color:C1 text:"Carter (C1)" from:01/09/2019 till:09/09/2019 color:C2 text:"Dixie (C2)" from:04/09/2019 till:09/09/2019 color:TS text:"Eliott (TS)" from:12/09/2019 till:18/09/2019 color:C4 text:"Fern (C4)" from:21/09/2019 till:04/10/2019 color:C4 text:"Glenn (C4)" barset:break from:26/09/2019 till:05/10/2019 color:C2 text:"Hope (C2)" from:09/10/2019 till:16/10/2019 color:TS text:"Ian (TS)" from:14/10/2019 till:01/11/2019 color:C3 text:"Janie (C3)" from:02/11/2019 till:04/11/2019 color:TS text:"Kiev (TS)" barset:break barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till barset:break bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/08/2019 till:31/08/2019 text:August from:01/09/2019 till:30/09/2019 text:September from:01/10/2019 till:31/10/2019 text:October from:01/11/2019 till:30/11/2019 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(618,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson scale)" The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, but activity in 2019 began nearly two and a half months later with the formation of Hurricane Ace on August 13, making it the first season since 2009 to not have a named storm before August, as well as the first since 1962 to not see the development of any tropical cyclones before August. It was a below-average season in which 11 tropical depressions formed. All of the depressions attained tropical storm status and seven of these attained hurricane status. In addition, four tropical cyclones eventually attained major hurricane status, which is above the 1981–2010 average of 2.7 per season. The amount of activity was attributed to a La Niña that persisted since the previous year. Two hurricanes and five tropical storms made landfall during the season, causing 317 deaths and $10.1 billion in damage. Systems 'Hurricane Ace' A tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on August 2. Over a week later on August 11, the JMC began to monitor the wave for development when it began to show signs of gradual organization. Over the next two days, the wave's appearance began to improve, and at 7 PM EDT (2300 UTC) on August 13, the first tropical depression of the season formed. Steadily intensification continued, and the depression was named Tropical Storm Ace the following day. Paralleling the coast of the Southeastern United States, Ace continued to strengthen under favorable conditions, eventually peaking as a 120 mph (193 km/h) Category 3 hurricane on August 17, just off the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Exiting the vicinity of the U.S. eastern coast, Ace began to quickly weaken in a increasingly hostile environment. Ace transitioned to an extratropical cyclone early on August 19. 'Tropical Storm Brittany' The second tropical depression of the season formed on August 21 in the Gulf of Mexico from a persistent area of convection. Based on reconnaissance data received from an JMC plane investigating the system, it was upgraded to Tropical Storm Brittany less than twelve hours later. Brittany gradually weakened while slowly moving inland, weakening into a tropical depression shortly after it made landfall near Cypremort Point, Louisiana, on August 24. At 17:00 UTC on August 26, Brittany weakened into a remnant low over western Georgia. 'Hurricane Carter' A tropical wave emerged into the Atlantic Ocean from the west coast of Africa on August 17. The system tracked westward at 17 to 23 mph (27 to 37 km/h) and convection began organizing five days later. On August 23, the wave passed north of the Windward Islands, bringing 5 to 8 inches (130 to 200 mm) on several islands. Although it was a strong tropical wave, the system weakened significantly while tracking steadily northward. However, conditions became favorable for development as it neared Bermuda. It developed into a tropical depression northeast of the Bahamas on August 28. A reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Carter at 1200 UTC that same day. Soon after becoming a tropical storm, Carter made landfall in Bermuda, though only light damage was reported on the island. The storm quickly strengthened while tracking northeastward and strengthened into a hurricane at 0600 UTC on August 30. By early on August 31, Carter attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a minimum barometric pressure of 987 mbar (29.2 inHg), and its intensity quickly leveled off as it entered cooler waters. Carter transitioned into an extratropical storm while located south of Cape Race, Newfoundland. On September 1, the extratropical remnants of Carter were absorbed by a frontal low pressure system located in the northern Atlantic Ocean. 'Hurricane Dixie' A tropical wave developed into a tropical depression about 141 miles (227 km) east of Guadeloupe on September 1. Moving northwest, the depression steadily tracked into a increasingly favorable environment. Late the following day, the system was reported to have attained tropical storm-force winds, and was upgraded accordingly, receiving the name Dixie upon doing so. Dixie continued on its sharp northwesterly course, and on September 4, strengthened into a hurricane. Beginning to round the periphery of a subtropical ridge, Dixie turned on a more northerly course and attained its peak intensity as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph (155 km/h) winds and a central pressure of 973 mbar late on September 6. The following day, Dixie's steering motion was completed as it curved east and entered cooler waters, subsequently beginning to weaken. Early on September 8, Dixie weakened to a tropical storm and accelerated northeast after a brief southeastern motion, and degraded further to a tropical depression by the next day. Dixie was last noted at 1200 UTC on September 9 before it was absorbed by a larger extratropical system several hours later. 'Tropical Storm Elliot' 'Hurricane Fern' 'Hurricane Glenn' 'Hurricane Hope' 'Tropical Storm Ian' 'Hurricane Janie' 'Tropical Storm Kiev' Storm names The following list of names was be used for named storms that formed in the North Atlantic in 2019. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2020. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2025 season. This particular list had not been used in any previous season, as it was drafted by the Jarrell Meteorological Center (JMC); a independent branch of atmospheric observation and research stationed in Central Texas. It is the first list from the agency to follow the NHC's trend of alternating male to female names without any overlapping, which had been present in its preceding lists. It was the first use for all of these names since the post-2016 naming change, except for Fern, Hope and Ian; which had been previously used in 1971, 1978, and 2016, respectively. Names that were not assigned are marked in . Season effects This is a table of all the storms that formed in the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a tropical wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in USD. Potential tropical cyclones are not included in this table.